Financial analysts at Goldman Sachs have issued a warning regarding the long-term impact of climate patterns on global food costs. The bank projects that a “very strong” El Niño event, currently detected in the tropical Pacific, will trigger a substantial increase in commodity prices over the coming years.
Forecasting the Impact
According to the bank’s models, a temperature anomaly of just 1.0°C can lead to a peak increase of 9.55% in global wholesale food prices, typically realized two years after the initial shock. However, the current forecasts for 2026 suggest a more intense anomaly of 1.65°C.
Under this scenario, Goldman Sachs estimates a cumulative surge of 15.8% in food commodity prices. This escalation is expected to fully manifest by the second half of 2028, posing a future challenge for the food industry already grappling with trade friction and tariffs.
Source: The Guardian